Abstract

The report "Concern for Tomorrow - a National Environmental survey 1985-2010" (RIVM, 1989) lead to the conclusion that traditional environmental policy measures were insulfficient to combine further growth of production and consumption with the realisation of a 70-90% reduction goal, which is necessary for sustainable development. Both unchanged policy (scenario I) and maximum application of end-of- pipe abatement techniques (scenario II) did not meet the emission targets in 2010. Therfore a third a third scenario was developed (scenario III), which is presented here. scenario III combines end of-pipe measures with structural policy measures, such as energy conservation, renewable energy, fuel switch, recycling, stimulation of public transport and organic farming. Scenario III leads to significant emission reductions in the periode 1985-2010: e.g. SO2-85%, NOx- 70% and waste dumping- 80%. The emissions of CO2 are reduced by 25%. The costs of scenario III amount to 4% of GNP. At present environmental costs are about 2% GNP. The macro-econimic effects are limited.