Abstract

Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed on an integrated assessment of probabilistic cancer mortality risks due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants. For each of the European nuclear power plants the probability of accidental releases per year of operation is combined with the consequences in terms of the excess doses received over a lifetime (70 years). Risk estimates are restricted to cancer mortality and do not include immediate or short term deaths in the direct vicinity (< 5-10 km) of the plants. Countermeasures to reduce radiation doses are not considered. Location specific risks are presented in maps of Europe. The excess mortality risk due to the combined operation of the European nuclear power plants is estimated to be about 10 x 10-8 per year in Western Europe. Going East the risks increase gradually to over 1000 x 10-8 per year in regions of the former Soviet Union, where reactors of the Chernobyl type are located. The nuclear power plants in the East European countries dominate the estimated risk pattern and contribute at least 40-50% to the average risk in the West European countries. Improving the reactor safety in eastern European countries could lead to considerable reductions in estimated excess mortality risks. In western Europe the mortality risk might be reduced by a factor of two, and in eastern Europe by a factor of 100 to 1000.