Abstract

In view of the parliamentary elections in May 1994, the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection has evaluated the environmental effects of the election programmes of six political parties: CDA, PvdA, VVD, D66, GroenLinks and RPF. This report presents the findings of the evaluation of the programmes of the first five parties. The main conclusion of this electroral environmental outlook is that the proposed environmental policy proposals have more impact than those mentioned in NEPP-1 and NEPP-2. In the year 2000 most substantial results are seen for emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas. The environmental policy proposals of GroenLinks lead to a substantial CO2 emissions reduction of the emissions of CO2 to probably below the 2000 target level. The PvdA and D66 proposals also result in an additional reduction of the CO2-emissions, but not as large as that realised by GroenLinks. CDA and VVD proposals have the same impact as NEPP-2 measures. The proposed measures of PvdA and GroenLinks reduce emissions of acidifying substances (particularly) NOx and SO2) in comparison to both the NEPP-2 proposals and the environmental policy proposals of the other parties. However, because of the high emissions from foreign sources and the emissions of NOx in the Netherlands, none of the political parties will achieve the acidification (deposition) target. In the year 2010 environmental measures of all parties (except VVD) have more impact than NEPP-2. PvdA is the only political party able to achieve more environmental benefits for equal spending. The GroenLinks proposals result in the largest reduction of CO2-emissions. In comparison to the NEPP-2, full implementation and enforcement of the election programmes of the different parties will lead to an additional reducton of emissions of acidifyingemissions. GroenLinks is most successful in reducing the emissions of SO2, NOx en NH3. Compared to all other parties the election programma of GroenLinks lead to the highest additional increase in costs of environmental policy: 10 percent in aid of the NEPP-2. In addition, all parties propose more taxes for environmental harmful activities.