Braat LC (ed) ,
Bakema AH ,
Boer KF de ,
Kok RM ,
Meijers R ,
Minnen JG van
60 p
in Dutch
1991
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract This report introduces an integrated model for
environmental scenario analysis and impact assessment. The EXPECT system
(EXPloring Environmental Consequences for Tomorrow) consists of a user
interface, a control program, a relational database with associated database
management system and a simulation model with social, economic,
environmental and ecological modules. An evaluation module provides
cost/benefit and sustainability assessments. A special program is included
to generate output in desired formats. The first and second National
Environmental Survey and Forecast, published by the RIVM in 1988 and 1991
respectively, have shown that the current run-time of an environmental
policy scenario is about two months. The scope of such an exercise
precludes analysis of many different scenarios as well as uncertainty
analyses of resulting environmental futures. The two surveys thus revealed
the need for a model which would be capable to rapidly generate a great
number of consistent, integrated environmental impact analyses of economic
and environmental policy scenarios. EXPECT modules are preferably developed
as simplified versions of state of the art models of economic activity,
environmental compartments and ecological, economic and social receptor
systems. The system will allow users to examine the costs and effectiveness
of economic and environmental policies for several environmental problem
areas simultaneously and with a short response time. The models and output
are defined on a relatively high aggregation level both with respect to
time, space and processes. The report describes the outlines of the various
parts of the EXPECT system. EXPECT is currently being developed by the
Department of Integrated Modeling (DIM) of the Environmental Forecasting
Bureau of the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental
Protection of the Netherlands (RIVM).
