English Abstract The members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) continue to voice their concerns about the adverse impact
of the implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies on the
oil exporting countries. Referring to Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC, the OPEC
is of the opinion that the agreed reduction targets will lead to a
significant decrease in revenue from petroleum exports, with the result that
OPEC countries are unfairly affected by measures proposed to mitigate global
climate change. The current study aims to provide quantitative information
on the impact of global climate change abatement policies on the revenues of
OPEC countries generated from the export of oil. The outcome of this study
shows that OPEC countries, but also other net-oil exporting countries, will
incur a substantial decline in potential oil income as a result of the
implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Depending on how OPEC reacts to a
decline in oil demand of the Annex I countries, the estimated reduction in
oil export revenues resulting from the implementation of Kyoto agreements
will be between 15 and 30% compared to the reference scenario. The most
important recommendation of the study then is to establish a sort of fund,
managed by the World Bank and the IMF, which can be used to support the
balance of payment (IMF) or the restructuring of the petroleum economy
(World Bank) in the oil producing countries. The resources for this fund
can be generated by putting a levy on oil in the Annex I countries or by
making money available for this fund in some other way.
