Jager JC ; Heisterkamp SH ; Houweling H ; Postma
MJ ; Reinking DP
55 p
in Dutch
1995
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract The epidemiological reference scenario plays a central
role in the present scenario analysis. The construction of economic and
social scenarios will be accomplished using epidemiological outcomes.
Modellers and epidemiologists defined and specified the contours of the
reference scenario. Backcalculation has been chosen as the methodology to
underpin the reference scenario. Assessments of the natural history
(incubation time distribution) and pre-AIDS treatment were made.
Country-specific surveillance data were gathered using a questionnaire that
was sent to the national representatives of the European countries involved.
These data on natural history, pre-AIDS treatment and country-specific
surveillance parameters can now be incorporated in backcalculation. From
discussions in the plenary meetings some basic themes for alternative
scenarios became apparent. These themes refer to the effects of: pre-AIDS
treatment ; the duration of incubation time; survival time after AIDS
diagnosis ; prevention (expressed in number of HIV infections) and AIDS
manifestation (related to neurological/psychiatirc morbidity). These themes
need to cover the whole working area of the EU Concerted
Action.
Rapport in het kort
Beschrijving van de werkwijze die bij de constructie
van een 'reference scenario' voor de epidemiologische, economische en
sociale impact van de HIV/AIDS epidemie in Europa zal worden
gevolgd.
