English Abstract In this report, a system dynamics model is described,
which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals
(i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in
relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy
requirements and waste flows. This metal model can be of assistance in
exploring the issue of sustainablility of metal resource use. Application
of the model to historical trends shows it to be fairly capable of
reproducing the long-term trends in the 1900-1990 period, among others on
the basis of two intensity of use curves applied to 13 world regions. For
future trends, a set of perspective-based long-term scenarios has been
constructed that represent the major paradigms in resource use. These
scenarios highlight some of the uncertain factors in the relation between
economic growth, metal resource exploitation and use, and energy and
environmental consequences. They also indicate that apparently similar
metal flows in society may be the result of quite different and sometimes
contrary assumptions on metal demand, production patterns and resource base
characteristics. Such analyses contribute to a more open and transparent
discussion on the issue at hand by adding quantitative explications to
qualitative views.
