Transport scenarios for the Netherlands for 2030. A description of the scenarios for the OECD project 'Environmental Sustainable Transport'
Transportscenario's voor Nederland in 2030, een beschrijving van de scenario's in het kader van het OECD-project 'Environmental Sustainable Transport'
Wee GP van , Geurs KT , Brink RMM van den , Waard J van de
RIVM Report 773002009
The Environmental Sustainable Transport (EST) project contains a business-as-usual scenario and three EST scenarios: (i) one 'high-technology' scenario containing only technological changes, (ii) one 'capacity-constraint' containing only mobility changes, (iii) one 'optimum-combination' scenario containing the 'optimum' combination of technological and mobility changes. Six EST criteria have been established for the purpose of planning more sustainable transportation systems. Three criteria based on reductions (%) of the polluting components: CO2 by 80%, NOx by 90%, VOC by 90% between 1990 and 2030, are common to the participation countries. Three additional EST criteria specified by the participating countries are related to particulate matter emissions, noise and land use in 2030. Concluding, the EST criteria can be met with: (i) only technological changes, (ii) only mobility changes or (iii) the combination of both technological and mobility changes, if a high increase in techological developments and/or very stringent behavioural adaptions and changes in spatial and economic structures at an international level are assumed. If the criteria have to met by technological measures, a very high increase in technological research is needed and expensive techniques will have to be developed and implemented. If the EST criteria are to be realised only by mobility changes, there is likely to be an impact on macro-economic developments and there will be social, cultural and land use implications. By combining technical and mobility changes, less stringent changes need to be made in the transport sector; impact on other sectors will also be less. These measures will probably also have the best potential societal support.