Scenarios for economy and environment in Central and Eastern Europe
Scenario's voor economie en milieu in Centraal en Oost-Europa
Bollen JC, Hettelingh JP, Maas RJM
RIVM Report 481505002
In 1993 an integrated assessment of the economic scenarios of Central and Eastern European countries, as developed by the World Bank, was carried out, primarily for emissions, deposition and concentrations of SOx, NOx, Particulates, Cadmium and VOCs. Other topics dealt with were quality of soils, groundwater and rivers in Europe. Economic development in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are far from favourable. Production and consumption have declined by 70% compared to 1990. However, economic prospects seem to be better. The World Bank expects that economic growth will be supported by structural shifts in the production process towards less material-intensive production and reliance on resources. Emissions have been reduced significantly compared to 1990. If in a period of economic recovery, the newly installed capital stock is geared to Western European standards, further reductions may be achieved. To improve the energy efficiency of CEE countries, energy prices will have to increase. It has been assumed that they will harmonise with Western European energy prices. Hot spots are defined as those regions which, by 2010, are still expected to suffer from an exceedance of Particulates, SO2 or Cadmium concentrations with respect to WHO air quality guidelines. These regional hot spots can be assisted by locally accelerating investments in new capital equipment in such a way that the whole capital stock will operate with Western European Standards by 2010. Not all environmental problems can be resolved by 2010. Implementation of all best availabale technologies in CEE is necessary, if all the environmental problems are to be solved. For CEE countries to realise the economic growth rates as assumed by the World Bank, paying off their outstanding foreign debts and applying environmental standards to improve environmental quality, the savings quote in these countries will have to rise from 20-25 per cent to more than 30 per cent.