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Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility, accessibility, CO2 emissions and noise

Effecten van een compacte verstedelijkings-variant op mobiliteit, bereikbaarheid, CO2-emissie en geluid

Synopsis

The compact urbanisation scenario for trends in housing, employment and infrastructure has been developed in the context of preparations for the Dutch 'Fifth Spatial Planning Plan' to be issued in 2000. The scenario is based on the modelling of historical trends and on assumptions pertaining to the effects of current spatial planning policies. The report describes the effects of the urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility, job and population accessibility by car and public transport, CO2 emissions and noise from car traffic for the Netherlands for the 1995 - 2020 period. The most important conclusions are as follows. Passenger mobility in the Netherlands will increase by about 25-30% in the 1995-2020 period, whereas car use will increase by about 50%. CO2 emissions from car traffic will increase by about 10-20%; fuel efficiency improvements will reverse much of the CO2 emission increase. Job accessibility by car and public transport will increase in the 1995-2020 period due to a 30% increase in employment. The potential number of jobs within 45 minutes travelling time by car will increase by 5%; this is only due to increased delays and congestion on the road network. Accessibility by public transport will increase by about 40% due to improved public transport. However, the average number of jobs within reach (45 minutes travelling time) by car is much higher than those reached by public transport (16 times in 1995, 11 times in 2020). Regional differences in job accessibility are large. The cities in the highly urbanised western part of the Netherlands (the Randstad area) have the highest job accessibility by car and public transport; in peripheral areas this is much lower. Noise emissions from car traffic, rail traffic and aircraft will increase significantly. As a result, the percentage of Dutch territory with a noise level above 50 dB(A) increases by about 20%, the number of inhabitants experiencing an outdoor noise level of more than 50 dB(A) increases by about 25%, and the surface area constituting quiet zones with a noise level of more than 40 d(B)A increases by about 40%.
 

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