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Insights for the third Global Environment Outlook from related global scenario anlayses. Working paper for GEO-3

Inzichten voor de derde Wereldmilieuverkenning uit verwante mondiale scenariostudies. Werkdocument voor GEO-3

Synopsis

This report relates to the ongoing development of scenarios for the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) of UNEP. It illustrates the scale and type of environmental impacts that GEO-3 needs to consider. It does so by quantifying impacts using existing, recent studies whose scenarios come closest to the current tentative global storylines for GEO-3. With a view to GEO-3;s envisaged role as input for the Rio+10 Earth Summit in 2002, this report suggests a focus for the GEO-3 scenario analysis on the potential for co-benefits between development and environment policies. Moreover, a set of three summary indicators is proposed, to reflect the impact of the scenarios on three domains of sustainable development. The quantification in the report addresses issues such as: the demographic transition and changing dependency ratios of populations; water shortages; changes in the yield of crops; risk of land degradation; and the loss of terrestrial biodiversity. Special attention is given to regional differentiation and no material that will help to estimate how vulnerability of humans and exosystems changes in the scenarios.
 

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