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Uncertainty analysis of USES 3.0. Improving risk management through probabilistic risk assessment of agricultural pesticides

Onzekerheidsanalyse van USES 3.0. Verbetering van het risicomanagement van bestrijdingsmiddelen door een probabilistische risicobeoordeling

Synopsis

Risk assessment of pesticides in the Netherlands is carried out using the computerised Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES). In USES the measure of risk is a single-point or deterministic estimate. Here, it is shown how a probabilistic assessment, incorporating knowledge about uncertainty and variability, can provide the decision-maker with improved insights into the risk management of pesticides. Advantages and possibilities of a probabilistic assessment are presented and provided with examples of calculations. This document is only intended for discussion; further efforts will be needed before a quantitative uncertainty analysis can be incorporated into the routine assessment of pesticides.
 

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