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Probabilistic calculation of intake of substances via incidentally consumed food products. Supplement to the handbook for modelling of intake of substances via food

Probabilistische berekening van inname van stoffen via incidenteel geconsumeerde voedingsproducten. Aanvulling op het draaiboek voor modellering van inname van stoffen via voeding

Synopsis

In this report a model is developed to estimate the intake of substances occurring in foods that are consumed incidentally (e.g. pesticides on certain types of fruit). To date, only the intake of the substances that are part of our basal diet, such as dioxins in animal fat, could be estimated. This is carried out by combining food consumption survey data with concentrations of the substances in different food products. The resulting data may be analysed by a statistical model (STEM) to achieve a distribution of long-term intakes in the population. However, this model does not apply when the food products containing the substance are not consumed every day (resulting in 'zero' intakes). The new model takes into account that the consumption frequency of individual food products may vary between individuals. The amounts consumed on a single (consumption) day may vary between individuals as well. Combining the estimated distribution of consumption frequency with that of consumption amount results in a statistical model that may be used for comparing the intake in the population with certain (chronic or acute) limit values.
 

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