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Uncertainty analysis and parameter optimisation in early phase nuclear emergency management. A case study using the NPK-PUFF dispersion model

Onzekerheidsanalyse en parameteroptimalisatie in de vroege fase kernongevallenbestrijding

Synopsis

The determination of radiation doses received after a nuclear accident can be improved if model calculations are combined with an analysis of radiological measurements in the local environment of the release point. Dose estimates in the early accident phase are currently based on model calculations only. These calculations have large uncertainties. This was demonstrated in a case study by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Uncertainty in model calculations after a nuclear accident makes it difficult for a decision maker to decide on counter measures to protect the population. For this reason RIVM will use measurements of the national radioactivity monitoring network to improve the model calculations. Important uncertain model input parameters were shown to be the release rate and some meteorological parameters. The case study demonstrated that a small number of radiological measurements in the early phase of the release are sufficient to significantly improve the determination of radiation doses. It is therefore recommended to implement the method in the Back Office for Radiological Information (BORI) of RIVM. BORI estimates the radiological consequences for men and environment during and after a nuclear or radiological accident. This research is part of the strategic research program of RIVM in the area of quantitative risk assessments.
 

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