Elzen MGJ den ,
Janssen MA ,
Rotmans J ,
Swart RJ ,
Vries HJM de
33 p
in Dutch
1992
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract The feasibility of an effective international response
to anticipated climate change is dependent on the recognition of the present
and historical inequities between developing and industrialized countries.
Developing countries should be enabled and supported to continue their
development towards higher standards of living in a fashion that is
consistent with the sustainability of the global biosphere. This paper
evaluates long-term climate strategies by which the burden of mitigating
climate change by controlling CO2-emissions is shared equitably. Here we
use as a possible criterion of equity, that every human being, past or
future, is allowed to emit the same carbon quotum on an annual basis. Using
such an interpretation of interregional and intergenerational equity we
calculate the 'emission debts' and future regional per capita emission quota
for the world-regions. The results show that past industrialisation has
coincided with a large relative contribution of the rich regions to the rise
in CO2-concentration, an estimated 40% for the EC and North America, which
have built up an emission debt of 36 GtC and 75 GtC resp. using recent
World Bank projections of population growth. The developing countries,
however, have built up an emission credit of 24 GtC. These regional
emission debts and credits increase the future per capita budget for the
developing regions till 0.2 - 0.8 ton C/cap yearly, whereas North America
and the EC end up with negative future carbon budgets. Even if the IPCC
Business-as-Usual scenario is considered as reference, the future emission
quota of most industrialized countries are lower than their present per
capita emissions.