English Abstract In the autumn of 1991 the second Dutch National
Environmental Forecast of the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and
Environmental Protection (RIVM) was published. For some of the subjects the
forecast deals with, the figues and conclusions are explained in background
documents. This report is the background documents for traffic and
transport. For traffic and transport the main conclusions are: The goals
for car use can be realised, if the complete policy for traffic and
transport is brought into practice, including the complete price policy
(increase of fuel prices and parking fees, road pricing, park fees). Taking
into account the political problems and the resistance of car users, the
goals are very vulnerable. Road transport will increase by about 70%
between 1986 and 2010. The emission of NOx per kilometer will be reduced by
about 50%. As a result, the total nox emission in 2010 will be reduced, but
not enough to reach the goals for 2000 and 2010. To reach these goals, more
measures or technical breakthroughs are necessary. To reach the CO2
emission goals for 2010, additional measures are necessary. A very strong
increase in air traffic is expected. Recent studies show that there may by
more environmental damage of aircraft than expected until now. There is no
policy to reduce the growth of air traffic and the environmental problems
related to it. Additional measures are needed the goals for 2010 for noise
and local airpollution.
