Klaassen MAW ,
Vos D ,
Seebregts AJ ,
Kram T ,
Kruitwagen S ,
Huiberts RGJ ,
Ierland EC van
146 p
in Dutch
1999
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract This report deals with E3-models to study the
relationship between energy, economy and the environment. Since energy
policies to reduce CO2 emissions can have major economic impacts, it is
important to study such complex relationships thoroughly. To overcome the
major drawback of existing linked models like MARKAL-MACRO, namely the
overly simplified representation of the economy, this research aimed at a
nationally oriented macroeconomic model and link it with the detailed energy
model MARKAL. This study also dicusses the value and application of this
class of modelling approaches for the IMAGE model. An input-output (IO)
model is concluded to be the most suitable for linking with MARKAL. Given
exogenous developments on world trade, foreign prices, labour productivity
and government spending, the IO model development calculates the output of
the different sectors and the inputs these sectors require for their
production. The linkage between MARKAL and the IO model is established
through two interfaces. The first interface transforms and re-allocates
energy costs associated with MARKAL technologies to comply with the
structure of the IO model. The second interface uses the results from the
model to calculate the induced changes in useful energy demand level for
MARKAL. This procedure is iteratively repeated until the model results of
MARKAL and IO converge and a new optimal solution is found. Since this
research focuses mainly on the methodological aspects of linking the models,
the numerical results should only be considered as an illustration. Having
linked the MARKAL model with an IO model it is now possible to analyze the
economic impacts of changes in the energy system and vice-versa in some
detail. Priority areas for further elaboration and development are
identified.