Schapendonk AHCM ,
Stol W ,
Wijnands JHM ,
Bunte F ,
Hoogeveen MW ,
Geijn SC van de
80 p
in Dutch
1998
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract Using simulation models in combination with results of
"Open Top Chamber" experiments, the potential effect of climate change on
the yield of arable crops and grassland in the Netherlands was estimated.
The changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature were derived
from two baseline scenarios with estimated atmospheric CO2 concentrations of
425 or 438 vpm in the year 2020 and 512 or 566 vpm in 2050, for a low and a
high scenario respectively. In these scenarios, temperature increased by
1.5 or 1.6 _C in 2020 and 3.0 or 3.5 _C in 2050. The temporal and
spatial distribution of the precipitation were affected by global change but
the yearly total remained equal. Predictions of changes in yield were made
using simulation models of the LINTUL-type. These model shave been applied
for land use evaluation, e.g. to assess the production potentials of new
cropping areas in dependence of climatic conditions and availability of
water and fertilizer. The predicted yields increased in the range between
19% to 50% (grassland), 16% to 35 % (sugar beet), 7% to 32 % (potato), 4% to
8% (winter wheat), but declined for Maize (-7 to -16%). Translated to
monetary effects for the producer, the effects are slightly negative, due to
lower price expectations and changes in land use. The net financial losses
range from -11 million guilders for potato to -158 million guilders for
cereals. Other crops are within this range with the exception of positive
financial return for grasslands from 266 million guilder in 2020 to 334
million guilder in 2050. The financial effects for the consumer are small:
a benefit of 130 to 150 million guilder for potato due to lower prices and
zero effects for all other crops. Considering the limitations of the study,
which are described and discussed, it can be concluded that the predicted
overall effects of climate change on Dutch agriculture will be
small.
