Ybema JR ,
Lako P ,
Kok I ,
Schol E ,
Gielen DJ ,
Kram T
110 p
in Dutch
1999
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract An energy model for Western Europe has been constructed
on the basis of the MARKAL model to analyse future development of CO2
emissions from Western Europe and the possibilities to limit these emissions
with technological measures. This report describes two baseline scenarios
for Western Europe for the period 1990 to 2050, which have clear differences
in economic production orientation and assumptions with respect to criteria
for making energy investment decisions. The differences in assumptions
result in distinctly different baseline CO2 emissions, ranging from almost
stable CO2 emissions to a continuous growth emissions. Several cases with a
range of CO2 emission taxes were also calculated to identify cost-effective
strategies for CO2 emission reduction and to assess the potential
contribution of energy technologies and sectors to CO2 reduction. Energy
efficiency improvements are shown to have the highest potential to
contribute to CO2 emission reduction. Fossil fuel switching and nuclear
energy are relatively cost-effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions. The
contribution of renewables to CO2 reduction is relatively small with low CO2
taxes but is substantial with high CO2 tax levels.