English Abstract This report explores and developes approaches to
spatially explicit modelling of land use/cover change and the potential
impact on land use related emissions of greenhouse gases. The approaches
are based on economic theory and related to biophysical and socio-economic
information. The literature study revealed a number of different economic
approaches to land use modelling. The approaches are described and
evaluated on their theoretical foundation and practical applicability. In
modelling studies models have been developed that take both socio-economic
and biophysical information into account. First the models have been run
with hypothetical parameter values. In the second stage, data requirements
have been compared to a data set, that is based on census data of Java. Two
different approaches have been developed. In the first approach a model
(the 'aggregated model') is developed where the production value is
expressed as the value of all crops. This model can be parameterised by
Ordinary Least Squares. In the second approach (the 'detailed model')
separate crop production functions have been estimated by means of Maximum
Entropy Econometrics. The parameterised models have been run and the
results are shown in this report. The models offer promising opportunities
and can be are improved and extended in many ways. Integrating biophysical
aspects in economic models and comparing economic models and models from
other disciplines requires a similar scale level of both approaches. The
application of an economic model on a higher scale level implies some loss
of detail: however, the comparability of the models with other models can
gain insight that will not be obtained with a non-comparable, detailed
economic model. By applying an economic model to a data set defined on a
coarser scale suited for regional analysis, this report has made a
contribution to the mutual understanding of economists and geographers in
the issue of land use and cover change, and thereby also to a better
understanding of LUCC.
