Koning GHJ de ,
Veldkamp A ,
Kok K ,
Ridder N de ,
Fresco LO ,
Schoorl J
160 p
in Dutch
2000
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract For global change policies it is highly relevant to
include information of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), as LULCC
contributes to global change but also offers possibilities for mitigation
measures. In order to be able to describe and analyse possible LULCC in the
near future, modelling approaches are necessary that can be used for
scenario analysis. In this project a LULCC-model was developed called CLUE
(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). The model uses quantitative
information on the main drivers of land use change at different spatial
scales, derived from historical and actual land use patterns. This
information is integrated in a spatially explicit dynamic modelling
procedure in which near future land use changes are simulated for different
scenarios. In these scenarios (inter)national developments can be
evaluated, such as changing national demands for food, market liberalization
or nature protection, but also regional and local developments like
migration and land degradation. The model was applied in several countries
in Central and South America and, through collaboration with another
NRP-project, also in Asia. For each country or region, the model was
calibrated and validated with historical data, and then used for scenario
studies with time horizons of 15 to 20 years. Realistic patterns of land
use change could be simulated, this way identifying area with highly dynamic
land use and high potential impacts on the natural resource base and global
climate systems. An example of the assessment of potential land use change
effects was given through linkage of CLUE model output with a nutrient flux
monitoring approach.
