English Abstract The project 'Globalisation, International Transport and
the Global Environment' (GITAGE) aims to map out the transport implications
of current world-wide globalisation trends, with a particular view to the
consequences of increased transport (of both passengers and goods) for
global environmental quality as reflected in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
(notably, but not exclusively CO2). In this study, environmental and
climate consequences of globalisation are assessed in a quantitative sense
for various modes of transport - in relation to international trade and
person mobility - in a medium- to long-term perspective by using results and
knowledge from the CPB World Scan Model and the IVM information base on
global emissions. Four globalisation scenarios (quantified with WorldScan)
formed the basis for various transport scenarios (on different scale levels)
of which the consequences in terms of emissions were shown. Besides, the
importance and possibilities of innovations in transport were clarified as
this is of major importance in mapping out the future of transport. Also
attention was paid to the possible impact of policy intervention. Under
high economic growth and little political concern about climate change, CO2
emissions from transport might double to quadruple, depending on the region,
in the period 1995-2020. It appears that European and Dutch emission levels
can only be limited to around 1995 levels if, simultaneously, economic
growth is limited, if under a trend towards sustainability transport
intensities of economies decline and if all technical opportunities for
reduction of CO2 emissions are exploited. However, since transport is
mainly a derived demand, the conclusion is that the transportation sector in
itself has only a limited potential to offer a significant contribution
towards a reduction in CO2 emissions. Transportation technology and
logistics are mainly driven by competitive behaviour, so that an autonomous
role of the transport sector in shaping a world characterised by sustainable
development is rather limited. This does not only hold at a global level,
but also at a national or regional level. In the context of the Dutch
situation with its emphasis on mainport strategies, it is not evident that
an abandonment of such logistic concepts in transportation policy would have
a significant influence on global CO2 emissions.