Nijhof S ,
Koenraadt S ,
Takker W ,
Githeko A ,
Martens P ,
Vries P de ,
Schneider P ,
Kovats S
100 p
in Dutch
2001
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract An increased incidence of vector-borne diseases is to
be expected as a result of climate change. The projected changes in climate
and climate variability will have a profound impact on the ecology of vector
populations. In order to estimate the extent to which such events might
occur, the effects of climate change on the distribution and epidemiology of
malaria and dengue are simulated, using a total of 17 climate scenarios (of
which 5 are presented in this report). The indicators used in this study
give a clear picture of the change in risk of malaria and dengue in the
coming 80 years. 'Transmission potential' (TP) is used to estimate the
effect of climate on the intensity of malaria risk for three time slices
(2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). All climate scenarios an increase of malaria and
dengue transmission potential as climate changes. Also a change of the
seasonality of these diseases is to be expected. The field study in western
Kenya underlines the potential changes that may occur under predicted
climate change scenario's. Increased temperatures lead to shorter mosquito
development times and more mosquito generations per year. Should this be
accompanied by more events of intense rainfall, malaria in the Kano plains
will increase, and the people of the Kericho hills will experience more
episodes of malaria epidemics than at present. Such events can, as we have
seen, alarming effects on the malaria incidence in mostly African
children.
