Sluijs JP ,
Potting J ,
Risbey J ,
Vuuren D van ,
Vries B de ,
Beusen A ,
Quintana SC ,
Funtowicz S ,
Heuberger P ,
Kloprogge P ,
Nuijten D ,
Petersen A ,
Ravetz J
250 p
in Dutch
2001
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract This project implemented a novel approach to
uncertainty assessment, known as the NUSAP method (Numeral Unit Spread
Assessment Pedigree) to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in
the TIMER energy model, part of RIVMs IMAGE Model. We used the IMAGE B1
scenario as case study. We used 5 complementary tools to assess
uncertainty: (1) A comprehensive checklist for model quality assurance
providing a quick scan to flag major areas of concern and associated
pitfalls in the complex mass uncertainties; (2) A meta-level analysis of
the results of the six SRES energy models, which gave us some insight in the
potential roles of model structure uncertainties. (3) The Morris algorithm
for global sensitivity analysis which identified as most sensitive
components:. Population levels and economic activity; Intra-sectoral
structural change; Progress ratios for technological improvements;
Resources of fossil fuels (size and cost supply curves); Autonomous and
price-induced energy efficiency improvement; Initial costs and depletion of
renewables; Supplemented with expert elicitation Morris served as an
efficient selection mechanism to focus the analysis; (4) A NUSAP expert
elicitation workshop, which yielded a differentiated insight into parameter
strength of sensitive parameters; (5) A diagnostic diagram putting spread
and strength together to provide guidance in prioritisation of key
uncertainties. Overall, the project demonstrated that the NUSAP method can
be applied to complex models in a meaningful way. The method provides a
useful means to focus research efforts on the potentially most problematic
parameters while it at the same time pinpoints specific weaknesses in these
parameters.