English Abstract This report presents the activities by RIVM and CPB in
the NRP project "Economic Impacts of GHG Stabilization Scenarios and
regional differentiation of targets based on burden sharing rules". The
report starts with an overview of the energy version of WorldScan, which is
a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector applied general equilibrium model. The
second part presents applications, and concern the medium term (Kyoto
protocol) and the long run (stabilization scenarios). The report then
concludes with the main findings. Finally, one of the appendices presents
an overview of the WorldScan User Support System (WUSS), which we developed
as part of this project. WUSS visualizes a database with WorldScan model
simulations and includes the new IPCC-SRES baselines and post-SRES
stabilization scenarios. The analyses presented in this report show that
some countries will gain and some will lose from implementing the Kyoto
Protocol (KP). However, the USA does not ratify the Protocol, and this will
economically benefit the other OECD countries and burdens the former Soviet
Union and the global environment. The KP will imply a cost to the Non-Annex
B energy exporters such as the Middle East. But in globalizing worlds they
may gain, because of lower trade barriers that encourage relocation of
energy-intensive production from Annex B towards the Middle East. This
phenomenon "carbon leakage" undermines the effectiveness of the KP. In the
long run, non-Annex B countries will have to reduce emissions to stabilize
greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Global emission trading is the
instrument that allows for allocations of emission permits to non-Annex B
that compensate them for any losses without sacrificing economic
efficiency.
