English Abstract In order to assess the impact of an anthropogenic
climate change on the transmission of malaria, an integrated assessment
model has been developed. In this integrated model, the direct effects of a
change in temperature and precipitation on the transmission potential of a
mosquito population are assessed by means of the vectorial capacity (defined
as the number of potentially infective contacts inflicted by the mosquito
population per infectious person per day) and the related critical mosquito
density (the minimum number of mosquitoes needed to maintain malaria at an
endemic level). The simulation results indicate a worldwide increase of
potential malaria risk and an extension of the areas conductive to malaria
transmission. In non-malarious areas the risk of introduction of malaria
associated with imported cases of malaria increases to some extent as a
result of the increasing importance of modern transport systems (e.g. air
travel) in introducing malaria into receptive areas. However, sound
interpretation of the change in malaria risk as simulated must be performed
within the framework of local conditions and socio-economic
developments.
