English Abstract Within the framework of a research program directed
towards the model-based assessment of the enhanced greenhouse effect this
report gives an overview of the role of the oceans in the uptake of
anthropogenic CO2 (i.e. CO2 released from industrial sources and changing
landuse). Background information on chemical, physical and biological
mechanisms is summarized. The role of the oceans in the CO2 cycle during
the geological past provides an important clue to understanding their
current role in the perturbated CO2 cycle. Based on these sources of
information a model for the oceanic carbon cycle is formulated which forms
part of the IMAGE system of models to assess the greenhouse effect. The
model is used for a sensitivity study of the effect of global change on
oceanic carbon uptake during the next century. The main conclusion of this
study is that the oceanic CO2 uptake is (on the time-scale of interest)
relatively insensitive to possible changes in external conditions. This
implies that management possibilities are virtually absent: CO2 abatement
policies should focus on terrestrial aspects (emissions and landuse) only.
In terms of research priorities the implication of this study is that it may
be possible to predict future oceanic CO2 uptake within reasonable
uncertainty limits, even though we are not able to predict all aspects of
ocean chemistry, biology and physics in detail.
