English Abstract The study presented here consisted of a small analysis
of the water demand in the past and a calculation of future demand using the
WAPRO99 model (computer model to calculate projections of water consumption
and production). Also described is how WAPRO99 has been used for the
National Environmental Outlook 2000-2030. Public water companies in the
Netherlands are able to ensure a rapid supply of 100% of the household water
demand. New purchase and use of appliances requiring water, and growing
public awareness, have led to a more efficient water use. However, specific
houshold water demand is expected to decline from 129 litres per capita per
day in 1995 to 108 litres per capita per day in 2030. The population in the
Netherlands increased from 15.4 and 15.9 million people respectively in
1995 and at the end of 1999 to around 18 million in 2030. As a result
future water demand here is expected to decline in the next two decades.
The production or activity level of several industrial branches or groups
were considered for forecasting industrial water demand (excl. power
plants). Public water supply growth was found to increase from 215 in 1995
to 391 million m3 per year (excl. power plants) in 2030 and total
industrial demand from around 2500 to 5700 million m3 per year in the same
period. Only water supplied through the public water companies to agrarian
consumers is considered in this study. This type of water is important for
cleaning some kinds of equipment (health aspects), for livestock and for
typical kinds of sprinkling. It increases from approximately 90 - 180
million m3 per year. Long-term forecasting for the category of small
business activities results in a high production level. Results of
forecasting water demand show a decrease from around 250 to 540 million m3
per year.
Rapport in het kort
Voor de onderbouwing van het beleid, alsmede voor een
bijdrage aan Milieuverkenning 5 is een analyse uitgevoerd van het historisch
waterverbruik en de daarbij behorende winning van grond- en
oppervlaktewater. Om inzicht in de toekomstige ontwikkelingen te krijgen
zijn tevens prognoses opgesteld. Hierbij is gebruik gemaakt van het
prognosemodel WAPRO (versie 99). Economische en demografische
ontwikkelingen op basis van CPB-scenario's (EC en GC) zijn gehanteerd bij
het opstellen van de prognoses. Verschillende categorien verbruikers zijn
beschouwd, zoals huishoudens, industrie en het sterk groeiende klein
zakelijk verbruik. Het accent in deze studie heeft gelegen bij productie en
levering van leidingwater door de openbare
watervoorziening.
