English Abstract Statistical and mathematical models have important
roles in the study of the Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)
epidemic. Statistical models can be used for short-term forecasting of the
AIDS incidence and mathematical models contribute to the identification of
those epidemiological factors which are critical in their effect on the
spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). This report gives an
overview of models developed by the Department of Medical Statistics (MSA)
of the University of Nijmegen (KUN) and the Center for Mathematical Methods
(CWM) of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental
Protection (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (the research in the
modelbuilding part of the study was made possibly by grant 28-1456 from the
Praeventiefonds (Netherlands Foundation). The time has come to start a
dialogue with public health officials on the role of mathematical models in
the evaluation of the effects of control strategies. We have therefore laid
emphasis on the future integration and application of mathematical models in
HIV/AIDS scenario-research. There is a long way to go, but mathematical
models should become a tool in the design and evaluation of control
strategies.
