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Effects on human health and ecosystems from different levels environmental ambitions in 2010

Gezondheids- en natuureffecten van verschillende verzuringsambities in 2010


In this report the deposition and concentration levels of acidifying components, ozone, particulate matter and NO2 have been calculated for three emission variants for 2010. These emission variants consist of (1) the effect of current policies, (2) a package of 12 extra policy options in addition to current policies and (3) the emission levels as set in the Fourth National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP4). It is assumed that foreign countries will follow the European NEC-Directive or the UN-ECE protocol. For SO2, NOx and NH3 the emission reduction potential of the package of 12 measures seems to be sufficient to attain to the national EU emission obligations. Calculations show the environmental quality in 2010 to generally improve compared to the reference year of 2001. However, given all uncertainties there is only a small chance that current policies will be sufficient to meet the national deposition target for potential acid and nitrogen. In the case of the 12 measures and the NMP4 packages it is more likely that the national goals will be met. Then still critical loads are exceeded in 70 - 90% of the ecosystems. In the case of ozone no exceedances of the 2010 EU target value for the protection of human health is expected. Compliance with the annual average standard seems feasible for PM10 in the Netherlands in 2005, although local exceedances at 'hot spots' cannot be ruled out. Compliance with the 2010 annual average EU standard of 20 4g/m3 is not feasible, even at high cost. Air quality will continue to improve with respect to NO2. This causes exceedances of the yearly mean EU-NO2 limit value to become more and more local phenomena. We expect that exceedances occur mainly along motorways in urban areas and 300 to 30,000 people are expected to be exposed to these exceedances in 2010.

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