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Prozon en Propart; statistical models for smog outlook

Prozon en Propart; statistische modellen voor smogprognose


The report describes two statistical smogmodels which have been developed at the beginning of the Nineties for the daily smog outlook by RIVM. For ozone, the model Prozon is in use since 1992. The model Propart for PM10 is used in its present form since 1998. The prognosis is calculated on the basis of the present concentration. This concentration is multiplied by a correction factor, derived from past measurements. The correction factor depends on the circumstances such as the type of measurement location, the season and the expected changes in weather patterns. These statistical models are constructed with the software Creamod, developed at RIVM. This software package consists of a number of modules which are able to define, construct and evaluate statistical air quality models in fast and transparent way. A working model consists of the arithmetic structure offered by Creamod, a definition file in which the structure of the model is fixed and statistical files in which the correction factors are laid down.

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