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Sectoral CO2 emissions in the Netherlands up to 2010. Update of the Reference Projection for Policy-making on Indicative Targets

Sectorale CO2-emissies tot 2010 Update van Referentieramingen ten behoeve van besluitvorming over Streefwaarden


The Dutch government intends to formulate indicative targets for maximum sectoral CO2- emission levels in the year 2010. To this end the expected future emission levels have been determined for four sectors: Build Environment, Agriculture, Transportation and Industry/ Energy. The study relies heavily on the Reference projection for energy and greenhouse gases in the Netherlands which was used to evaluate the progress with respect to the national climate changed in 2002 has been updated for a number of new implemented policy measures. The update of the Reference projection focuses on partial changes in the future CO2 emissions; no detailed picture of developments with respect to energy use, energy conservation, fuel mix or energy costs are presented. The results have been discussed with representatives of the sectors involved; this has led to some adjustments to the trends until 2010 and extra emission changes. The results for Industry/Energy in 2005 are of of the Dutch National Allocation Plan under the EU Emission Trading Scheme. The report starts with the definition of the new sectoral emission format and a fitting of the base year figures to the updated national emission statistics. A substantial downward correction on industrial emissions has been implemented. Then three rounds of recent policy updates, totalling more than 40 emission changes, are described. Taken together these policy updates also provide a significant decrease in future emission levels. The results are presented for the national level and the four different sectors mentioned earlier. In the industry/energy sector emissions increase due to adaptations to the earlier expected trends in the outlook. All emission changes together lead to a total emission in 2010 in accordance with present GHG policy. Finally, as a contribution to the discussion on allocation of emission rights, the results for industry/energy are com-pared with future emission levels according to expectations of sectors representatives. Also the insights of sectors that differ from the study results are described. Differences with sector expectations can be explained by, among other factors, differing expected growth rates.

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