The ‘Scenario analysis code red’ knowledge brief is one of the sub-studies of the National Heatwave Plan Evaluation conducted by RIVM in 2024 and 2025.

Climate change has caused increasingly longer periods of heat in the Netherlands, including the likelihood of extreme heat. In order to test the extent to which Dutch people are prepared for extreme heat, RIVM drew up a heat scenario. This code red scenario describes a realistic, yet extreme heat situation with various effects occurring almost simultaneously. RIVM discussed this scenario with various heat experts and stakeholders in a workshop attended by national, regional and local organisations.

In this  workshop, the participants discussed the question whether the Netherlands is ready for a code red heat scenario. Other topics addressed were the intended goals during extreme heat, who has what roles and tasks, and whether the heat plans - national and regional - can play a complementary role in the preparations for extreme heat.

Although the Netherlands has taken several steps, the scenario analysis does reveal a number of focus points to be better prepared for extreme heat. For example, it is difficult to determine exactly when extreme heat is actually disruptive to society. There is also no agreement on the goals to prepare the Netherlands (including the Caribbean) for extreme heat. The analysis also shows that standard solutions for crises in the event of extreme heat may not be sufficient. There are also different expectations of roles, tasks and responsibilities of various parties, such as municipalities, security regions and ministries.

Based on these focus points, RIVM formulated a number of recommendations to ensure that the Netherlands is better prepared for extreme heat.