The number of people with a chronic illness is set to rise further by 2050, to nearly 12 million. Dementia and arthrosis are expected to see particularly significant increases, with the number of people affected by these conditions expected to nearly double by 2050. This is according to the new Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHF), soon to be published by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM).

The number of people with dementia is projected to increase from 261,000 in 2022 to 506,000 in 2050. This group is not limited to the elderly: 6% of all dementia patients are between the ages of 40 and 65. Dementia primarily causes issues with memory, speech, recognition and performing daily tasks.

3 million people with arthrosis in 2050

The number of people with arthrosis is expected to grow from 1.6 million in 2022 to 3 million by 2050. Arthrosis symptoms often include pain and (partial) immobility. Other conditions expected to become more prevalent by 2050 include private, work and sports injuries, neck and back pain, and kidney failure. In contrast, conditions like lung cancer are projected to decrease significantly.

Increase in multiple conditions

The PHF also shows that the number of people with 1 or more chronic conditions known to their GP will increase from 10.5 million in 2022 to nearly 12 million by 2050, with the largest rise among those aged 75 and older. The number of people with 3 or more conditions will rise from 3.3 million to 4.3 million, growing substantially more quickly than the number of people with 1 or 2 chronic illnesses. 

About the PHF

The results above come from the 2024 Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHF), published every four years by RIVM. The PHF explores developments in public health and health services up to 2050. The full report will be released on 27 November.