The legally binding targets for reducing nitrogen deposition in Natura 2000 areas will not be met, according to the second monitoring and evaluation of the Nitrogen Reduction and Nature Improvement Programme (PSN). Despite the measures that the government has implemented, deposition of nitrogen on most nitrogen sensitive nature areas continue to exceed safe levels. Nature restoration in the Netherlands is lagging behind thresholds agreed within the European Union. Long-term nature restoration demands a consistent policy, one that effectively targets the recovery of natural ecosystems while taking account of other pressure factors, such as soil dehydration. It is precisely in these aspects that we see delays in implementation.
Commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature, the knowledge institutes PBL, WUR and RIVM analysed the progress and impact of the PSN and other policies since its inception. Studies focusing on isolated aspects as well as a synthesising report examined both measures targeting sources of emissions, aimed at reducing nitrogen deposition, and measures targeting nature restoration, aimed at the recovery of nature.
Reduction in nitrogen deposition is insufficient
Nitrogen deposition affecting nitrogen-sensitive Natura 2000 areas in the Netherlands decreased by 32% between 2005 and 2023. This decrease was not constant, however. A stagnation was evident between 2010 and 2017, after which levels continued to drop. Nitrogen deposition from other countries as well as from agriculture, traffic and industry in the Netherlands is decreasing. Dutch agriculture accounts for nearly half of nitrogen deposition in the country, while around 12% is attributable to traffic and transport and 2% to domestic industry. About one-third is emitted by sources outside the Netherlands. These decreases indicate a drop in the extent to which the critical loads for nitrogen deposition (the amount of nitrogen deposition above which nature is at risk of being damaged) has been exceeded. Nonetheless, the critical loads for nitrogen in nitrogen-sensitive natural habitats are still being exceeded in a larger area than is permitted by law. The percentage area of nitrogen-sensitive nature where the deposition level was under the critical load increased from roughly 21% in 2005 to 30% in 2023. However, the projected decrease under the current measures comes to 33% by 2030, while the target for that year is 50%. It is therefore extremely unlikely that targets will be met with the current measures.
Nitrogen measures contribute 10% to 15% to required nitrogen reduction
In order to meet the target for 2030, nitrogen deposition must be further reduced. Government policy measures make up only 10 to 15% of nitrogen reduction required to meet that target. In addition, a large portion of the expected decrease will come from reductions in other countries and other developments that impact nitrogen deposition. The prognosis is that by 2030 only around half of the required decrease will have been realised. Reductions in nitrogen deposition based solely on source measures reported in the PSN also lag far behind original expectations. Nonetheless, progress has been made since the previous monitoring and evaluation in 2024 to implement measures targeting sources of nitrogen deposition.
Effects of measures mainly through buyout schemes for livestock farmers
Most of the reduction in nitrogen deposition can be ascribed to buyout schemes to close down livestock farms, such as the Lbv, and the Lbv-plus scheme. However, nitrogen-reducing management strategies and innovations in agriculture have still, after five years, not been sufficiently developed or are having less impact than anticipated. Measures targeting emissions from traffic, construction and industry have, on the other hand, largely been implemented.
Nature restoration demands more than a single-minded focus on nitrogen
Nature restoration and conservation require measures that put the focus on multiple pressure factors. Pressure factors, including soil dehydration and acidification due to nitrogen, must be permanently reduced in order to restore and conserve nature in a sustainable way. The measures required for this are often complex and challenging to implement, such as raising groundwater levels or reducing agricultural intensity around protected Natura 2000 areas.
Time to revise the Nitrogen Reduction and Nature Improvement Programme (PSN)
It is stipulated by law that the programme must be reviewed if targets will be out of reach. Up until now this has not been done. The current PSN must be updated, taking account of other pressure factors in addition to nitrogen deposition, and with the inclusion of a long-term vision. Policies aimed at nitrogen reduction and nature restoration demand a range of measures and close cooperation between public authorities and sectors such as agriculture and site managers. A more comprehensive approach, with better coordination between source impacting measures and nature restoration measures, will increase effectiveness. Monitoring and new insights must lead to sharper policy focus in the short term.