The RIVMNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment research develops along two time lines:
- cause in the past and effect in the future
- development of the ozone depleting substances, ozone
layer, UV irradiance and skin cancer risks
RIVM has implemented both time lines in its AMOUR model packages relating CFC-emissions in the past to a decline of the ozone layer, and an elevated level of UV-irradiance at present that leads to increased risk to develop skin cancers and cataracts in the future. Different emission scenarions of ozone depleting substances and their relative consequences can be infered. The"most likely" to occur is called the A1 scenario. Interactions in the atmosphere and possible consequences of climate change yield different scenarios for the development of the ozone layer and cloud formation. The development of UV-risk is also attached to the ageing of the populations and migrations patterns.