Abstract

The world of work is affected by technological, economical and societal developments that move rapidly and are uncertain. For this reason, RIVM and TNO have investigated which developments are key to ensuring occupational health and safety in the Netherlands in 2040. This has resulted in four scenarios for the future, in which they have elaborated different outcomes for the main uncertainties, such as the growth rate of the economy.

The first scenario ('A world divided into blocks') focuses on international political tensions and technology. This scenario assumes more jobs in work sectors as defence, security and industry. In the second scenario ('Less is more'), society prizes values such as happiness, sustainability and health above money and technology. In the third scenario ('Economic crisis') many businesses go bankrupt because expectations in technology and AI turn out to be very disappointing. The resulting economic crisis will lead to job losses on a large scale. In the final scenario ('Sixth gear'), the economy grows in leaps and bounds against a backdrop of cooperation across the globe and rapid technological developments.

The four scenarios yield a number of insights. In the first place, it is important to get to grips with the psychosocial workload that is a frequent cause of work-related stress. The significance of this workload is already considerable and is expected to become even more so, due among other things to the increased complexity of work and the uncertainty that people face when confronted with shifting tasks.

A second insight is that the risks associated with work change due to the shift of work to other sectors. For instance, if the Netherlands wishes to be less reliant on countries such as China and wants to develop more of its own industry, more workers may become exposed to chemicals. At the same time, technology may reduce work-related risks, especially when it comes to physically demanding work and work involving hazardous substances.

Lastly, ongoing attention is required for the needs of groups of workers who are more vulnerable to the effects of the aforementioned developments than others, for example because developments move very rapidly. This mainly concerns flexible workers, workers who are less highly educated and migrant workers.

Policymakers, employers and trade unions are invited to reflect on whether their policies are effective for the various scenarios, so that occupational health and safety can be assured in the future.