Climate change will lead to more tropical days and warm nights in summer, and fewer cold days in winter. In the Netherlands the risk of dying increases when it is hot. The municipality of Amsterdam wants to know what this means for their residents. Therefore, RIVM investigated whether there was an association between temperature and mortality in Amsterdam between 2007 and 2019. The study shows that elderly, residents of neighbourhoods with a low socio-economic status and of neighbourhoods with less green space have a higher risk of dying from heat. Looking ahead, RIVM estimates that the number of heat-related deaths in Amsterdam will increase.
Expected increase in heat deaths
The RIVM estimates that in Amsterdam the number of deaths per year due to heat will increase from 110 to about 250 in 2050, depending on the climate scenario. There are no clear differences in risks at low temperatures between different groups of inhabitants. These estimates are based on the climate scenarios of KNMI, the relationship between temperature and mortality and the expected ageing of the population of Amsterdam. The results of this study are comparable to other studies in the Netherlands.
Heat serious climate risk to health
Exposure to high temperatures is a serious climate risk to human health. In addition to higher mortality risks, heat can also lead to morbidity or reduced labour productivity. It is important to study the relationship between high and low temperatures on health, in order to estimate the impact of climate change on health.
RIVM conducted this study on behalf of the municipality of Amsterdam.