Climate change, such as drought and extreme weather, has a major impact on European food systems. Technological developments, geopolitical unrest and conflicts also play an important role. This is shown by a literature review carried out by RIVM and international workshops held with policymakers, experts and representatives from industry and civil society.
Based on literature, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) mapped developments that influence European food systems. These developments were prioritised and interpreted in workshops held across Europe. To account for differences within
the (European Union), RIVM examined three countries: Bulgaria, Germany and Italy. The study provides greater insight into developments in Eastern Europe, Northwest Europe and Southern Europe. Workshops held in these three countries revealed clear differences in priorities.
Differences between European countries
In all three countries, climate change was considered to be the most important development.
But there were differences as well. Italian participants gave the rise of AI and
machine learning a high ranking. Participants from Germany put the transition to a circular economy in second place while in Bulgaria the declining availability of fresh water ranked high. To enable the transition to more sustainable European food systems, it is important to take these differences between countries into account.
Possible consequences of these developments
Participants in the workshops expect that both the quantity and quality of available food will decrease due to climate change, specifically drought and extreme rainfall. This could lead to future food shortages and price increases. In Germany, some positive aspects were also mentioned, such as a longer growing season, new products and greater support for the transition to more sustainable agriculture. Conflict could lead to trade restrictions, sanctions and a focus on self‑sufficiency, resulting in changes in production, distribution and access to food.
About the study
The RIVM study is a ‘horizon scan’, a method for identifying important trends and future challenges regarding the food system. It is a first step in a broader foresight study for the European Union (EU). The study can serve as a basis for policies that anticipate these developments, with the aim of ensuring healthy and safe food for current and future generations. For the first time, health has been included as a factor in the food system framework developed by RIVM.
The European Commission commissioned RIVM to carry out this study as part of the European FutureFoodS partnership.