Abstract

The National Heatwave Plan is a warning system that aims to protect vulnerable groups, such as young children, people who are ill and the elderly, against the effects of heat. These people have a higher risk of getting health problems as a result of the heat. The Heatwave Plan is activated when high temperatures are forecast for consecutive days in the Netherlands. This allows organisations, care and other professionals, and informal carers to take action.

The National Heatwave Plan was first activated in 2010. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has looked into the relationship between high temperatures and the number of deaths in the Netherlands before (2000–2009) and after the plan was first activated (2010–2019). This revealed that the risk of dying from heat has decreased after 2010. This might be due to the Heatwave Plan, but other factors may have played a role as well. For example, considerable attention was paid to the heatwaves in 2003 and 2006, including by the media. These were among the longest and most intense heatwaves recorded in the Netherlands. It is possible that this caused people and organisations to become more aware of the dangers posed by heat. This makes it difficult to assess the effect of the National Heatwave Plan.

The risk of dying from heat mainly decreased among the elderly, women and people living in low-income neighbourhoods. Among people over the age of 90 the risk of dying decreased, but the estimated number of deaths remained the same in both periods. This was due to the increase in the number of people in that age group, as a result of population ageing.

Measures to reduce health problems caused by heat remain necessary, especially since population ageing is causing a rise in the number of very old people. In addition, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) expects the number of hot days to increase in the years to come.