About 7% of smokers quit after the 2024 increase in excise duty. Another 16% attempted to quit, 22% started smoking less, and 14% switched to an alternative, such as a cheaper brand of cigarettes. This is apparent from a RIVM study into the effects of this tax increase. The smokers surveyed also indicated that they purchased a significant amount of tobacco products abroad: around 60% of all tobacco products bought (estimate).
This last percentage was significantly higher compared with previous excise duty increases. In 2023, an estimated 40% of tobacco products were purchased abroad, up from 30% in 2020. RIVM concludes that smokers are still sensitive to price changes, but pricing policy is losing effectiveness because of the availability of cheap tobacco products in other countries. As long as tobacco prices in neighbouring countries do not increase, RIVM expects the share of smokers that quit or attempt to do so following an increase in excise duty will decline.
Policy must focus on reducing purchases of tobacco products made abroad
RIVM recommends that policymakers focus on measures to reduce the attractiveness of purchasing tobacco products abroad. This could be achieved by equalising tobacco prices in Europe. Furthermore RIVM also recommends reducing the maximum amount allowed to be brought into the country and actively monitoring this.
Make e-cigarettes less attractive
Lastly, RIVM recommends implementing an excise duty on e-cigarettes (vapes). Besides their health impact, e-cigarettes are a gateway for young people to smoking. After starting using e-cigarettes, young people gradually transition to real cigarettes. The ban on flavoured vapes has contributed to reducing the appeal of e-cigarettes. Another recent study by RIVM showed that this ban appears to be effective.
Pricing policy effective against smoking
From the academic literature, it is known that pricing policy is the most effective measure against smoking in terms of both impact and cost. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends raising the excise duty substantially every year. As a result of the increase in excise duty in 2023, prices increased 11% for cigarettes and 28% for roll-your-own tobacco. At the last excise duty increase (2024), the price increase was 24% for cigarettes and 45% for roll-your-own tobacco. This greater increase appears to have contributed to a growth in purchases made abroad.
About the study
In the National Prevention Agreement, it was agreed to increase the excise duty on tobacco (cigarettes and rolling tobacco) gradually. The Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport commissioned RIVM to study the impact of these excise duty increases. Participants were surveyed about their smoking behaviour both before and after an increase in excise duty. RIVM previously studied the effects of the excise duty increases in 2020 and 2023.