RIVM expects climate change to have increasingly severe adverse health impacts. In addition to taking every possible action to combat climate change, Dutch society will also need to adapt more effectively. As this change will take time, action must be taken without delay. This is the conclusion of the RIVM report ‘Exploration of the future health effects of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation measures’.
RIVM has conducted research to assess how climate change will affect human health in 2050, focusing on heat, air quality, UV radiation, infectious disease, allergies and pollen, and mental health. The resulting study also describes the health impacts of the various ways in which society can adapt to climate change.
Examples of health impacts in 2050
Currently, heat is already claiming lives, and the number of heat-related deaths is expected to rise by 2050. As plants and trees experience longer flowering periods, people will suffer from hay fever and other allergies for extended durations and with greater severity. Meanwhile, infectious disease is likely to become more common as a result of warmer, wetter and drier weather. Climate change can affect mental health as well: people may experience anxiety or even depressive symptoms in response to climate change and the consequences of, for instance, extreme weather events.
Health impacts not evenly distributed
Certain groups in society are particularly vulnerable to health impacts, such as the elderly, children, and those with chronic illnesses. Others are more exposed to risks, for instance due to where they live, the nature of their work, or because they are less able to protect themselves or adapt. It is important that these disparities are addressed in public policy to minimise health inequalities.
Different approach to organising society needed to ensure long-term resilience
RIVM investigated which measures would be effective in adapting to climate change, both in the short and long term.
The short-term measures examined focus on making greater use of technical solutions and emphasise self-reliance. While these interventions reduce exposure to risks, they are insufficient to ensure long-term resilience.
The long-term aim should therefore be to make the living environment more climate-resilient while also increasing the resilience of society as a whole (‘collective resilience’).
This change-oriented approach can help resolve multiple societal issues. For example, more water and the shade offered by expanded green spaces in cities will contribute to reducing heat stress. At the same time, more urban greenery also boosts biodiversity and encourages people to meet up and get active. A healthy lifestyle makes people more resilient and better able to cope with the effects of climate change, which could lead to lower rates of illness.
Such measures take time to have an impact; it is therefore essential to begin implementation immediately. This calls for a government that exercises clear direction, both financially and administratively.
Action needed now
The health impacts of climate change are still difficulty to quantify precisely. However it is expected that the negative impacts will increase significantly. It is therefore crucial to take health impacts into account when making decisions about the use and design of public spaces. To ensure a resilient and future-proof society, it is important to start implementing measures without delay.
Part of a PBL publication
In 2024, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), in collaboration with other institutions, updated its climate risk assessments for various sectors. RIVM contributed to this by investigating the health risks posed by climate change. This new report is a continuation of that research