Abstract

The dynamic model of the occupation of homes for the elderly describes the numbers of inhabitants and the fluctuations in it. The numbers of inhabitants are specified to gender and age. The fluctuations are due to admission, leave and mortality. The yearly throughputs between the five-years age groups are estimated. Two alternative model versions are presented: one that makes use of one-year age groups and one that describes the outflow as a function of the sojourn time. The dynamic model using five-year age groups is used to calculate the average sojourn time in the homes and to calculate the future number of inhabitants.