Abstract

Many people are insufficiently physically active. For their health, it is important that they are more active, and specific policies are developed to support this. The current policy period ends in 2026. In preparation for new policies, RIVM has explored which societal developments up to 2040 will influence sports and physical activity. This report describes the methodology used in this study. The main results are available at www.sportenbewegenincijfers.nl/verkenning-2040.

First, we identified which societal developments are likely to have the most impact on sports and physical activity. Examples include population ageing, urbanisation, climate change and digitalisation. Subsequently, we examined how these developments may affect four themes: sport and physical activity behaviour, providers of sport and physical activity, sports experience, and the sport and physical activity environment. This was conducted using ten key indicators, such as the number of people meeting the physical activity guidelines and the number of members of sports clubs. Citizens were asked to what extent they recognised themselves in these results.

Next, a simulation model was used to project how the key indicators may develop in the coming years. With this model, we assessed the future effects of societal developments on the key indicators, taking into account the interrelationships between them. We also identified which factors most strongly contribute to a favourable or unfavourable development of the key indicators. For instance, in a strongly ageing population, the number of people who are sufficiently physically active is expected to decline.

Finally, based on all input, RIVM described two future scenarios for society that experts consider realistic. In one scenario, the focus is primarily on personal freedom. In the other, there is more attention for each other. For each key indicator, potential opportunities and threats are outlined, so that policymakers can take them into account in future policy development.