RIVMNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment regularly produces comprehensive Public Health Foresight Studies (PHFS). These studies provide insight into the most important societal challenges for public health and health care in the Netherlands. They are commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport and are used to inform national and local public health policy. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach, and using a broad definition of health.
2020: Dutch Public Health Foresight study in the light of COVID-19
Public Health Foresight might be more necessary than ever to get a grip on possible (health) impacts of the current coronavirus outbreak. This concerns its direct health effects but also indirectly the crisis will have effects, for example, due to changes in regular health care or changes in lifestyle. In addition, socio-economic developments might have an effect on health in the longer term. In the new Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS), scenarios were developed to provide insight into possible future impacts. The aim was to support a better assessment of (exit) strategies in which the broad effects are integrated (time horizon 0-5 years). A second goal was to provide insights into longer-term future developments (10-20 years) given the newly gained knowledge about the risks of such a pandemic.
E-magazine Looking beyond COVID-19
This e-magazine offers an overview of the key findings from the corona-inclusive PHFS. The key messages are clustered into four themes: COVID-19, health, health care and living environment. These four themes describe how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected many topics, and may potentially have a future impact in these areas as well.
Former editions of the PHFS
- Public Health Foresight Study (PHSF) 2018: A healthy prospect
- Public Health Status and Foresight study (PHSF) 2014: A healthier Netherlands
- Public Health Status and Foresight study (PHSF) 2010: Towards better health
- Public Health Status and Forecasts Report 2006: Care for health
- Public Health Status and Forecasts Report 2002: Health on Course?
- Public Health Status and Forecasts 1997: the Sum of the Parts, synopsis
- Public Health Status and Forecasts 1993: The health status of the Dutch population over the period 1950-2010
Foresight methodology
Producing regular, comprehensive public health foresight studies is not common practice in most countries. Nevertheless, fueled by the substantial future demographic and societal changes many countries face, interest in such studies is growing. The PHFS team at RIVMNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment therefore also engages in sharing experiences and capacity building. For example, a workshop on recent foresight activities in Europe was organised at the European Public Health (EPH) Conference in 2018, and an introductory pre-conference on how to perform a public health foresight study will be organised at the forthcoming European Public Health (EPH) Conference in November 2019. In addition, the PHFS team has organised foresight workshops in several countries including Lithuania, Slovenia and Wales.
RIVM Top Expert in Public Health Foresights
Making public health foresight studies is one of the RIVM’s fields of expertise. For several of these, RIVM has appointed a Top Expert. These senior experts stimulate the scientific and strategic development of their field of expertise. RIVM’s Top Expert in public health foresight is Dr Henk Hilderink.
News
- COVID-19 consequences impact vulnerable groups more in the long term
- First products Dutch Public Health Foresight study available in English
- Trend scenario PHF- 2018 identifies societal challenges for the future
- RIVM presents four scenarios on future public health at European Health Forum Gastein
- RIVM forecasting study: a healthier Netherlands with more people living with a chronic disease