Scientific models are public and accessible

RIVM is conducting research on the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that includes the use of models. When the studies are completed, the results are published. RIVM publishes about the research studies in international peer-reviewed journals. This leads to open access publications: publications that are accessible to everyone. The codes and data we use are also public. The models and publications related to these research activities are listed below.

CoronaMelder app – model study on effectiveness

RIVM conducted a model study on the effectiveness of the CoronaMelder app in combination with testing and standard source and contact tracing. The effect of the app between 1 December 2020 and 31 March 2021 was estimated based on modelling. The report was part of a broader evaluation of the app (Evaluation CoronaMelder – An overview after 9 months) commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS). The evaluation was sent to the House of Representatives of the Netherlands on 28 May 2021. The report and the source code for the model are available to the public.

Document: The CoronaMelder app – a model study into effectiveness. Digital contact tracing in the fight against COVID-19.

Code available

Expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies

The Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS) has asked the Health Council of the Netherlands to issue an advisory report on COVID-19 vaccination. To support the Health Council and the Ministry in this task, RIVM has calculated the burden of disease caused by COVID-19 and the expected impact of COVID-19 vaccination. This publication presents the results of these calculations. It supplements an earlier RIVM report (report number 2020-0151) that was published in 2020.

Document: The expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies

Previous RIVM report: COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 : Background information for the Health Council

Update on COVID-19 test demand

Document: Update on COVID-19 test demand 21 October 2020

Estimated test demand for extensive molecular testing

Document: Estimated test demand for extensive molecular testing for COVID-19

Research on COVID-19 incubation period

Article: Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20–28 January 2020

Research on the spread of COVID-19

Article: De COVID-19-epidemie: indammen en afvlakken: Bestrijdingsmaatregelen tegen piekbelasting in de zorg. [The COVID-19 epidemic: containing the spread and flattening the curve: Measures to combat peak loads in healthcare. Published in Dutch.

Research on correcting for reporting delay

Article: Nowcasting the Number of New Symptomatic Cases During Infectious Disease Outbreaks Using Constrained P-spline Smoothing

Research on reproduction number R

Article: How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers

Research on the impact of opening schools

Article: Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Research on IC occupancy

To provide forecasts on hospital or intensive care (ICU) admissions for people with COVID-19, RIVM has developed a transmission model. The results projected by this model are regularly presented in the technical briefings to the Dutch House of Representatives on controlling the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The article listed below presents an initial description of the transmission model. This article was written for scientists and researchers who want to know more about the model. The contents of this ‘living document’ will be updated regularly on the basis of current information.

Report: Description of transmission model for calculating the burden of COVID-19 on the Dutch healthcare system (in Dutch)

The type of transmission model used here is standard; RIVM uses the same type for modelling other infectious diseases. An example of this model can be found in the article below.

Article: Joint modelling of serological and hospitalization data reveals that high levels of pre-existing immunity and school holidays shaped the influenza A pandemic of 2009 in The Netherlands. (Age-structured SEIR model)