Public Health Foresight

RIVM regularly produces comprehensive Public Health Foresight Studies (PHFS). These studies provide insight into the most important societal challenges for public health and health care in the Netherlands. They are commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport and are used to inform national and local public health policy. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach, and using a broad definition of health.

New! Public Health Foresight study 2024

In November 2024, the Public Health Foresight Study 2024 (PHFS-2024) was published. The reports and web pages are written in Dutch. As a service to our international readers, we are working on an English translation of the main report. This will be available in early 2025.

Go to PHFS-2024

Foresight methodology

Producing regular, comprehensive public health foresight studies is not common practice in most countries. Nevertheless, fueled by the substantial future demographic and societal changes many countries face, interest in such studies is growing. The PHFS team at RIVM therefore also engages in sharing experiences and capacity building. For example, a workshop 'Applying strategic foresight methods in public health and policy-making' at the 17th European Public Health Conference in Lisbon. The PHFS team has organised foresight workshops in several countries, including Lithuania, Slovenia and Wales.

RIVM Top Expert

Making public health foresight studies is one of the RIVM’s fields of expertise. For several of these, RIVM has appointed a Top Expert. These senior experts stimulate the scientific and strategic development of their field of expertise. RIVM’s Top Expert in public health foresight is Dr Henk Hilderink.

Former editions of the PHFS

Relevant publications

News items about the PHFS

Difficult choices for a healthy future are unavoidable

The demand for care will continue to grow over the coming decades. This will require difficult choices in the care sector, for example with regard to including certain treatments or medicines in the basic health insurance package.

Overweight will continue to increase until 2050, especially among young adults

The percentage of people in the Netherlands with overweight will increase to 64% in 2050, up from 50% in 2022. The percentage will increase for every age group, but the 18–44 age group will see the most significant increase.

Doubling of people with dementia and arthrosis by 2050

The number of people with a chronic illness is set to rise further by 2050, to nearly 12 million. Dementia and arthrosis are expected to see particularly significant increases, with the number of people affected by these conditions expected to nearly double by 2050.

RIVM identifies three major challenges for public health and healthcare in period to 2050

The Dutch public health and healthcare will face three crucial challenges in the period to 2050. This is according to RIVM’s preview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study 2024.

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