Abstract

Chemical substances are used to make everyday products such as medicines and cosmetics. They can also be a source of energy, such as methanol and ammonia. Some chemical substances are hazardous. In the Netherlands, these substances are transported by road, by rail, by water, and through pipelines. An accident involving hazardous substances may cause a fire, an explosion, or a toxic cloud. This is why there are many rules in place to make sure that these substances are transported safely.

It is important that these rules take into account developments that affect the future transport of hazardous substances. RIVM has studied these developments from many different perspectives. As a result, not only apparent topics are considered, such as climate change, the energy transition, and the demand for housing, but also the effects of economic, technological, and geopolitical developments.

Due to developments concerning climate change, for example, there will be more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. They have the potential to damage infrastructure or restrict its use. Therefore, substantial investments will be required over the coming years to adapt railways and rivers to the changing climate. Another noticeable development has been the increase in housebuilding in areas close to transport routes of hazardous substances, particularly near railways. Consequently, an accident in such an area would affect a greater number of people.

Furthermore, the energy transition will result in the use of other substances such as hydrogen. In an accident, these substances have other effects than fossil fuels have. At the same time, it is uncertain which substances will be used in the Netherlands and beyond, and in which quantities. It is also unclear how these substances will be transported, and along which routes. Significant investments will need to be made in order to ensure the safety of large-scale transportation of these substances. Amongst other things, from a geopolitical perspective, it is important to pay attention to possible malicious (cyber) disruptions to the transport of hazardous substances. The same applies to unwanted dependencies on certain foreign countries for the supply of substances.

In general, RIVM notes that many developments remain uncertain. Because of these uncertainties, many of the parties involved are waiting for others to take decisive action first and are postponing investments. In order to prepare for the future, it is important to identify uncertainties and to remove them as much as possible.