Publication date 29-11-2024 | 17:10

The demand for care will continue to grow over the coming decades. This will require difficult choices in the care sector, for example with regard to including certain treatments or medicines in the basic health insurance package. Climate change, too, will have a greater impact on the living environment and health, while health inequalities are not diminishing. These are the conclusions of the new Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHF) conducted by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). There is a need for firm health policies that also take into account health effects and opportunities within other policy areas, such as education, work and housing construction. Only then will the Netherlands be better prepared for a healthy future.

In the new PHF, RIVM explores developments in public health and health services up to 2050. Population ageing remains the most important development when it comes to public health.

Population ageing will continue to be a care burden

Many elderly people remain vital after they retire, with average life expectancy expected to increase to 86.5 years in 2050. This is almost five years more than in 2022. For the sake of vitality and health, continued participation in society in those extra years will be necessary. Voluntary or paid work could contribute to this. At the same time, the number of elderly people with health problems will increase significantly, as will the number of people with chronic diseases. This will cause the demand for care to grow even more. However, increasing staff shortages will make it impossible to continue to provide all forms of care.

Doubled demand for informal carers

Population ageing will also increase the pressure on informal carers in future. The number of people over the age of 75 expected to require informal care will more than double between 2022 and 2050, to 650,000, whereas the increase in the number of informal carers will continue to lag behind significantly. These figures also necessitate difficult choices.

Consequences of climate change

Another important development is the impact of climate change on the living environment and health. Among other things, more people will suffer from heat stress. There will be a greater chance that infectious diseases will spread, more cases of skin cancer and more heat-related deaths. Climate change can also cause mental stress. To counter these consequences, a healthy design for the living environment is important. One way to achieve this would be to introduce more green spaces in cities.

Physical and mental health of young people

Furthermore, RIVM has identified an increasingly unhealthy lifestyle among young people. As we get closer to 2050, even more young adults (18–44) will become overweight, and at an increasingly young age. Young people have increasingly unhealthy lifestyles likely to have mental health problems. It is important to invest in their health, for example by limiting points of sale and advertisements for unhealthy foods and paying attention to reducing the pressure to achieve.

Health inequalities are not diminishing

The PHF also shows that the health inequalities in the Netherlands are not diminishing. What this means is that people in poor socio-economic circumstances have 14 fewer years of good health, on average, than people who are better off. The reasons for this include poverty, income insecurity and a lack of good housing or social networks.

Steadfast, clear and concrete policies

To tackle the above challenges, RIVM recommends adopting firm health policies. After all, prevention is simply a matter of perseverance. Measures to combat an unhealthy lifestyle, for example, will only have visible effects after a number of years. Furthermore, the government must set out clear health goals in its policies. As many challenges are interconnected, they must be tackled jointly, with a focus on public health. In addition to introducing new measures, it will also be important to uphold the health policies already in place, including anti-smoking policies and policies to encourage physical activity. Lastly, an effective approach will require everyone’s dedication; in addition to the government, the private sector, community organisations and citizens must also do their part.

About the PHF

The results above are derived from the 2024 Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHF), which RIVM publishes every four years. The PHF 2024 consists of:

In the run-up to the complete PHF, RIVM has already published some of the results. For example, RIVM has shown that the number of people with illnesses like dementia and arthrosis will increase significantly until 2050. The number of people with overweight – especially young people – will also increase significantly.