The number of reports continues to rise in all regions and in all age groups. Last week, in the week of 30 September, 27,485 new people who tested positive for COVID-19 were reported by the Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs). The highest number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants is in the age category of 18 to 24 years (Figure 1).
The number of people who are or were admitted to hospital due to COVID-19 also increased compared to the week before. This also applies to the number of people who had to be admitted to Intensive Care due to COVID-19.
Effect of the measures
The first effects of the measures announced by the Dutch Government on 30 September are expected to be visible from next week at the earliest. Stabilisation or slight decrease in the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 is expected to be the first visible effect. Stabilisation and decrease in the number of hospital admissions and Intensive Care admissions will follow later. For that reason, we do not expect those figures to decrease before mid-October.
Figure 1: Number of confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants, by age group, from 24 Aug to 4 Oct.
Increase in hospital admissions and ICU admissions
Hospital admissions of 803 COVID-19 patients were reported to the NICE Foundation in the past week. In the week before that, there were 501 hospital admissions to nursing wards* (Figure 2A).
We also see this increase reflected in the number of ICU admissions due to COVID-19. In the past week, the NICE Foundation reported 122 admissions to Intensive Care. In the week before that, there were 100 admissions to ICU* (Figure 2B).
Starting this week, RIVMNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment will be providing weekly updates on the number of hospital admissions to nursing wards and Intensive Care based on figures from the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE Foundation. In this phase of the epidemic, the figures provided by the NICE Foundation offer the most up-to-date overview of hospital admissions and Intensive Care admissions of COVID-19 patients. Further details on the data provided by the NICE Foundation.
Figure 2A: Number of hospital admissions to nursing wards and Intensive Care with confirmed COVID-19, recorded by the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) Foundation, from 3 August 2020, based on date of hospital admission.
Figure 2B: Number of hospital admissions to nursing wards and Intensive Care with confirmed COVID-19, recorded by the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) Foundation, based on date of hospital admission.
The deaths of 89 COVID-19 patients were reported in the past week.* The deceased patients were aged between 50 and 95 years.
* Not all of the reported hospital admissions or deaths occurred within the last week.
GGD test lanes
From 28 September to 4 October, 222,877 people were tested in the GGD test lanes, 15,000 more than in the week from 21 to 27 September. The results of 110,587 of these tests are currently known. The percentage of positive tests rose to 9.1%. That figure was 8.0% in the week of 23 to 29 September.
Reproduction number R
The reproduction number is 1.17 (range 1.26 - 1.21) and has not changed much compared to last week. This means that the epidemic is still accelerating. For the fifth consecutive week, the confidence interval is entirely above 1. A reproduction number of 1.17 means that 100 people who are infected with the novel coronavirus will collectively infect another 117 people.
Number of contagious people in the Netherlands
If a person catches the novel coronavirus, that person is contagious and can infect others for a certain period. Based on various data sources about how many people are infected with the novel coronavirus, it is possible to estimate the number of contagious people in the Netherlands and the range of probability for that number.
The method for calculating the number of contagious people is still under development. Now that the number of hospital admissions is rising, and new data from the second round of the PIENTER Corona Study has become available, the method used to calculate the number of contagious people will change starting from next week. In preparation for this change, the number of contagious people has not been updated this week. Right now, the number of contagious people is calculated on the basis of the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19. Starting next week, this figure will be calculated based on the number of hospital admissions and the data from the PIENTER Corona study. More information on the coronavirus models used at RIVM.
To prevent the virus from continuing to spread, it is important for everyone to comply with the measures. Keep your distance. Work from home. If you have symptoms, stay home and get tested. Wash your hands frequently, and in any case when you arrive at home, after using the toilet, and before preparing food. Sneeze and cough into your elbow.
|Last week1||Two weeks ago2|
|COVID-19 reports by Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs)|
|Newly reported COVID-19 infections||27,485||19,326|
|Number of hospital admissions to nursing wards (Source: NICE)||803||501|
|Number of hospital admissions to Intensive Care (Source: NICE)||122||100|
|GGD test lanes per calendar week3||week 40||week 39|
|Total number of tests||222,877||207,670|
|of which results are known||110,587||207,219|
|Number of people who tested positive||10,057||16,602|
|Percentage of positive tests||9.1%||8.0%|
Not all of the reported hospital admissions or deaths occurred within the last 24 hours
¹GGD reports to RIVMNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment
between 29 September 10:01 and 6 October 10:00 as published 6 October 2020 in the weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 in the Netherlands
²GGD reports to RIVM between 22 September 10:01 and 29 September 10:00, as published 29 September 2020 in the weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 in the Netherlands
³As published on 6 October 2020 in the weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. The figures from the GGD test lanes were reported during the past week and current week, and may be updated to include any test results provided later